Emmy Noms and Bombs

As a dyed in the wool videophile, it pains me to admit that I always bomb at guessing who's going to win at the Emmy Awards. The terminal flaw in my precognitive skills seems to be that I always pick who I want to win, not who I think the academy will choose.

So this year I'm going to try something different and I'm going to include both picks. This way I might (might) just get a few right. Mind you, my picks will be from my favorite categories, so you'll have to argue amongst yourselves who'll win the Best Actor Emmy in a Dramatic Series (they're all downers as far as I'm concerned).

Dramatic Series: The show that I want to win is ABC's "LOST." This show is a twisting, turning, maddening mind trip. It eschews the usual formulas you typically find in dramatic series and really tries (and succeeds) to take us places we've never been before. The show that I think will win is AMC's "Breaking Bad." It's got drugs, cancer, violence and (very dark) humor. Personally, I find this show too painful to watch, but I suspect Academy voters can't get enough of it (last year it received four nominations and won two).

Comedy Series: The show I would really love to see win year is HBOs "Flight of the Conchords." This is the fictionalized story of a real comic-rock duo and their attempt to make it big in New York. These guys are the epitome of lovable losers, but their imaginative and hilarious songs shine an pleasurably painful beam on their (and our) human weaknesses. Of course, I think the Academy will choose NBC's "30 Rock" and I can't really blame them. It's leading this year with a whopping 22 nominations and it did (deservedly) win Best Comedy Series last year. This is the show that made NBCs Thursday night "must see TV" again, so I can't feel bad if they're rewarded for it.

Supporting Actor: My pick is Michael Emerson from ABC's "LOST." He plays the role of Benjamin Linus. And let me just say that after watching this character, and this actor's performance for three years, I still can't decide whether he's a good guy or a bad guy. If that's not Emmy-worthy, I don't know what is. However, I think the Academy just might choose William Shatner for his third win in this category. His characterization of Denny Crane on ABC's "Boston Legal" is truly riveting. And since the show is no longer on the air, this is their last chance to reward it.

Actor, Comedy Series: Oh please, let it be Jim Parsons from CBS's "Big Bang Theory." He plays Sheldon the "king of the nerds" on this hilarious show by the creators of the unwatchable 2-1/2 Men (I know, I know, people love that show, I just can't figure out why). "Big Bang Theory" makes up precisely 33% of all the shows I watch on CBS, so that's gotta count for something. That said, I think they're going to give it to Alec Baldwin of NBC's "30 Rock." And he deserves it. His razor sharp delivery is the icing on an already stellar cast.

Actress, Comedy Series: I have a tie here. I can't decide between Juia Louis-Dreyfus for CBS' "New Adventures of Old Christine" or Christina Applegate of ABC's "Samantha Who." On one hand, Julia carries that entire show with masterful skill and with hilarious results. On the other hand, Christina's "Samantha" was a refreshingly nice show about a bad girl trying to rebuild her life the right way - and she was canceled before her time. On the other-other hand, Tina Fey is going to win for "30 Rock," so my indecision is doesn't matter a fig.

Supporting Actor, Comedy Series: Now this time, I want a "30 Rock" actor to win. I think Tracy Morgan's maniacally self-absorbed performance is sheer genius. The more I watch him, the more I love him. Of course, I won't mind when the academy gives the award to Neil Patrick Harris for his role on CBS' "How I Met Your Mother." After all, he is hosting the Emmy Awards this year, and if they don't give it to him, he might just end the show there.

Supporting Actress, Comedy Series: My pick for this category is Kristin Chenoweth for "Pushing Daisies" on ABC. She plays the love-lorn Olive Snook. One of the best parts about having this Broadway star on show show was that she'd occasionally break into glorious song. And again, this show was killed before its time so I hope the Academy shows ABC the error of its ways. But... no surprise here, I think they'll give it to Jane Krakowski of 30 Rock. Yeah, yeah, she's awesome. The cast is awesome. The show is awesome. I guess that's why I think the Academy is going to reward them with all the Emmys.

Okay, those are my picks. Who do you wish would win - and who do you think is going to win. And which show would you like to give a shout out to? You can school me in the comment section below.

The 61 Emmy Awards will air live on September 20th. See the complete List Of Emmy Nominations here.